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Nice blog by the way. A lot of the guidelines for the Codex system were derived from Alan Williams published test results. I had a summary of some of them in one of the books at the end as an addendum.
I agree with you when it comes to ballistics, from tank games like Squad Leader etc. 30 years ago I was aware that penetration values for a given projectile at a given range against a given thickness and type of armor are fairly predictable. I think it’s a little less so with arrows and crossbow bolts, though similar. Thrown weapons, and of course weapons with which you stab and thrust, cut and bash, depend a lot more on the human factor which is highly variable.
Another nuance – what happens when you attack from horseback?