Reply To: Dice, Probability, and Simulation

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Hans Hellinger

I haven’t read the whole article, but I don’t buy the premise. We did the “monte carlo” or “Casino” method, i.e. brute force, when testing Codex. I.e. we rolled the various combinations of dice 10,000 times.

3d6 produces a vast amount of 8-12 results compared to 1 or 18. This was the basis of the ‘modified dice pool’ or ‘roll many / keep one’ method we used in Codex, partly because people get so angry about the flat curve of a 20 sided dice, especially when they roll a ‘fumble’ result.

Multiple 20s is ideal for me because it gives you the wide range of potential results (1-20) with the bell curve outcome you want (skewing higher for more dice, with much less possibility of a ‘natural 1’. 3 x D20s meant you got a ‘natural one’ something like 1 time out of 3,000 die rolls if I remember correctly.

I could set up the simulation again to test it (again) easily enough.